NOW, EVEN SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE AT RISK OF DECLINING

A new weakness poses a troubling question: What do we try next?

Newspapering is a tough business. It hasn't always been such, but the vagaries of the ’90s have been such that daily papers in the United States have seen a whole lot of trouble.

A whole lot of profit, too, but that's another day's story.

Circulation (as separate from readership or penetration) has not been the shining light of the business in recent years. Total circulation today is roughly what it was in 1960 – and there are lots more people in the country today.

Throughout the ’70s and ’80s, Sunday circulation grew, reaching a high of 62.6 million in 1990. It became axiomatic that while daily circulation dropped, Sunday grew. But the latest FAS-FAX numbers are startling in one specific category: Sunday circulation is down.

Senior Editor Pete Wetmore took some of the more alarming numbers and chatted with the circulation directors at those newspapers to see what they were doing to counteract the problem.

Inside, you can see the various responses; I was most taken with the comments of Randy Chapman, marketing services director for Copley Chicago Newspapers, who explained how his papers have worked hard to get better results with their telemarketing program.

I contrast that with a comment made by Mark Willes, publisher of the Los Angeles Times and chief executive of Times Mirror Co., during his presentation at last month's Newspaper Association of America annual convention. In his discussion on plunging circulation (and the Times has had more than its fair share in years past), Willes suggested that one of the problems – not solutions – with newspaper circulation was telemarketing.

To paraphrase Willes: How can you expect people to stick with something that was sold to them when they were interrupted in the middle of dinner?

The Los Angeles publisher says that of 100 people who start a subscription to the Times, only 15 remain after 12 months. That represents a churn factor of more than 90 percent, which is much larger than the industry average of 66 percent at papers larger than 400,000 circulation.

Unfortunately, I don't have a silver bullet to replace telemarketing, except to fall back on Willes again: He suggests getting a one-to-one relationship with potential readers. He cited expositions, conferences and other ancillary products as one way to get non-subscribers more comfortable with the product; this is a topic we covered at great length recently (see NewsInc., Feb. 2, 1998).

Ultimately, though, the message is clear: A daily (or Sunday) newspaper is no longer compelling. There are too many things going on out there to distract the potential subscriber – too much TV, too much radio, too much Internet.

Hell, it's gotten to me, and I'm someone we used to call a "news junkie." Ten years ago I read at least three newspapers a day, if not four. Today I'm lucky to get through two. But I do flip on CNN Headline News on TV once or twice a day, I do check out web sites all the time, and the radio is always on in the background.

When confronted with the topic of a compelling news report, I always harken back to an elderly instructor I had in college who derided what he called "circus makeup" – you know, those fancy, six-column layouts with big pictures.

In other words, one generation's "compelling" is another generation's slaughtering of sacred cattle.

It's time for America's editors and publishers to start thinking about whether the way newspapers have been assembled for the last generation – what I call the "castor oil" approach, because newspapers always give you what's good for you, whether you like it or not – will work for the next generation.

There is no question that the readers are voting – with their feet and their pocketbooks.

Do we have the time to fiddle around, or are we going to have to make wholesale changes soon?

It's a tough business, and this is a tough decision.

– David M. Cole

Inside ...

• Circulation managers apply ideas that are new, old and innovative
• CareerPath is blazing a trail for taking classifieds on-line successfully
• L.A. story: Preprint advertisers soon will have one-bill, one-buy
• Journal Register adds to its growing collection of clusters
• Details, details drive CitySearch and Zip2 to cancel the wedding
• Persons

From NEWSINC., May 25, 1998, Copyright © 1998, The Cole Group. All Rights Reserved.