March 1, 1999
Vol. 11, No. 5

MAGAZINE ERRS AS IT SKETCHES GLOOMY NEWSPAPER FUTURE

'Net threat is real, but extinction isn't just around the virtual corner

When the March issue of a new magazine, Business 2.0, arrived the other day, I knew there was trouble.

On the cover was a drawing of a dinosaur skeleton. The cover line read, "Are You Next? – 20 Industries About to be Fossilized by the Net." Underneath that were the words, "Travel, Supply, Insurance, Newspapers, Auto. ..."

Uh-oh. Another self-described "expert" patiently explaining why newspapers aren't going to live another minute. And while the one-page sidebar itself dismisses the "flock of Chicken Littles proclaiming the end of print media," it puts forth two basic theories:

  • "It's the small- and medium-sized dailies that the Internet has in its cross hairs."

  • "The Internet has ... spawn[ed] a new breed of competitor – Monster Board, Autobytel.com, Realtor.com, RentNet and CarPoint, among others – feasting on the industry's traditional bread and butter: classified ads."

    Now, I feel really uncomfortable in the role of defender of the newspaper business – after all, I've staked out the high ground here as an industry critic – but this article was so flawed that it requires a response.

    Let us take the latter argument first, the one about classifieds. The writer grudgingly acknowledges the establishment of newspaper consortium Classified Ventures LLC of Chicago "last July" (correct date: December 1997), but makes no mention of CareerPath.com, AdOne, AdQuest or any other newspaper new media initiatives (many of which have been with us for two or three years).

    The progress in newspapers aggregating their classifieds has not been as good as I would like, but there's no question that the movement has been fast and furious in the last three months and that newspapers are rapidly catching on. (Inside, you'll find a raft of reporting on newspaper new media issues. We take you inside the transaction that will make Zip2 part of the on-line portal AltaVista, we visit the Interactive Newspapers Conference held the week before last in Atlanta, and we take a look at two newspaper executives who have helped fuel the new media movement. Lastly, in his News(s) Media column, Chris Feola counts the money made on-line last holiday season.)

    The Business 2.0 writer then takes a shot at the notion that traditional classifieds aren't going to be the method of moving merchandise in the future – on-line auction sites will "list ads and distribute them better than newspapers could ever hope to do." Curiously missing from the story is any mention of Auction Universe (admittedly not the top auction site, but growing), which is owned by – Classified Ventures.

    So, let's get back to that first argument – that it's smaller papers that should be the most worried about the Internet.

    Let me get this straight: The Internet will take away the thing that small dailies do well – report upon and provide an advertising vehicle for local events and businesses? They must have some good mind-altering substances at Business 2.0, because though the small daily needs to understand new media, there isn't enough profit to come into a small market and take a small paper's business away.

    The small daily's ability to focus on a narrow niche – in this case, a geographic niche – is its strength. The "World-Wide Web" is just that – world-wide. There aren't a lot of people outside a small community who are interested in that community (though we know that there is always a certain expatriate audience).

    No, the papers that need to be most concerned about new media already are concerned – the bigger suburban papers and the metros. Though newspapers' web sites don't have the traffic of a portal, many are doing quite well – look especially to the big brand names, such as the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post.

    This slipshod article does get one thing right, though – it asks what will be newspapers' new media "sustainable business model." Good question. Too bad I don't have a glib answer for that.

    David M. Cole

    Inside ...

    From NEWSINC., March 1, 1999, Copyright © 1999, The Cole Group. All Rights Reserved.

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