A LITTLE HOLIDAY CHEER IS TEMPERED BY READER REALITY

Newspapers wind up a good ad year, look to ’98 for modest gains

Maybe it's just the onset of the holiday season, but I'm feeling uncharacteristically cheerful these days.

Or maybe it's the cheerful news out of the newspaper business: Last week, the Newspaper Association of America released figures indicating that newspaper advertising expenditures for the first three quarters of 1997 were up 8.9 percent (with classified up 9.5 percent, retail up 4.9 percent and national up 13.2 percent).

Happy New Year to you, too.

Inside, Correspondent Jon Fine takes us on a tour of newspapers around the country and finds that most publishers are going to take modest retail rate increases in 1998 but that some – one who was only willing to speak if allowed to be anonymous – plan some heavy-duty increases.

With all the advertising categories showing good growth, the only bad news in the newspaper business this year has been circulation.

Unfortunately for us, those consistently declining numbers may be harbingers of bad days to come.

The good news is that the business environment for newspapers looks cheery for ’98. The bad news is that it would only take a slight shift in the overall economy to make ’98 not-so-great.

The economists who write for the popular press seem to think the nation's economy is sailing smoothly right now, but they all warn that a crash of the markets in Japan or a war in the Middle East could disrupt things to Titanic proportions (whether you're talking about the sailing ship or the ill-fated recent movie of the same name).

We think that newspapers should operate under the assumption that the economy will continue to be robust. But the business needs to start taking precautions against not only a potentially faltering economy, but also start the hard work necessary to reverse circulation and penetration declines.

It's an issue of quality. Yes, consumers tell us they just don't have time for newspapers. But why can't I help but believe that if the newspaper business produced a better quality set of products that people would find more time for us?

If we were to prepare more compelling news stories, covering more relevant topics, would people tell us they don't have time for us? If we made better photographs or packaged the paper better, would readers keep fleeing us?

If we trimmed down our arrogance a notch, would fewer people let the paper they do buy sit by the door?

Is there a magic wand that can be waved to make newspapers sell better? No. But we can invest a little more time in a story, a little more energy in a layout, a few more resources in covering our communities. Maybe these little investments of time, energy and intelligence will give us a readership that's willing to stick with us.

Well, maybe I'm not as cheerful as I thought. The revenue picture looks good, but the overall picture of the newspaper business isn't as rosy as I would like.

We have a choice: to continue blithely counting our profits, or to count our profits and then set about investing some of them wisely.